|The Tsunami Society has issued a press statement to counteract the effect of the scaremongering reports.
Their aim is to correct misleading or invalid information released to public about this hazard.
The Tsunami Society states about the Discovery Channel program:
‘We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded reports.”
Source: The Tsunami Society
|THEY SAY: The “The block dropped 4 meters in 1949”!.
|The suggestion that ‘the block’ of rock (25km long, 2-3km deep and 15-20km wide) suddenly sank by 4 metres in 1949 is an absurd lie. Just one look at the coastal villages of Puerto Naos, Tazacorte, El Remo, Bombilla and Playa Nueva is enough to disprove this ridiculous lie. These villages are all situated just above sea level and would have disappeared under the sea.
The block didn’t sink, the villages didn’t sink. SOME OF THE AREAS 30,000+ INHABITANTS WOULD HAVE NOTICED.
Ward/Day/McGuire suggest that the entire block moved 4metres vertically in relation to the rest, if that were true it would leave a very clearly visible vertical displacement fault. This evidence just does not exist. The line they suggest for the edge of the block is 40kms long. Along 37.5km of this line there is NO EVIDENCE of any movement at all. They are lying about 37.5km of the 40km line.
Or lets measure it by surface area. The surface area of the supposed block (above the sea) is about 135km2, there is evidence of movement in area of roughly 0.25km2.
What the real scientists reported was a surface fissure 2.5km long. A fissure is NOT a vertical displacement. The real scientists stated that there was no evidence to indicate that it was anything more than a localised surface phenomenon created by the lava flows nearby.
If ‘the block’ dropped by 4 meters then there must be a surface crack along the 2 sides. These cracks DO NOT EXIST. There is no fault line. The suggestion that the block fell is a deliberate falsehood. They found ‘a crack in the paint’ but Ward/Day/McGuire claim that ‘the whole wall is about to fall down’ !!!
|THEY SAY: Mountain flank collapses have caused long-distance Mega-tsunamis.
|The three known instances of similar events, Krakatoa, Santorin and Lituya Bay, Alaska, created local damage but a tsunami did not reach any distant shores. Claims that the El Hierro collapse caused problems in the Bahamas are denied by scientists in the Bahamas.
Ward/Day/McGuire ignored proven scientific facts and start the Horizon program by stating that the Lituya Bay, Alaska incident caused a mega tsunami. It didn’t, and they knew it. Lander, and P. Lockridge stated clearly that the wave was confined to a small bay and dissipated quickly in the open waters of the Gulf of Alaska.
|DAMNING EVIDENCE: Using scientific computer modelling the researchers from the Technical University of Delft tried to simulate the collapse of La Palma and an ensuing Tsunami. Even using extreme unrealistic data and ignoring many dampening effects they could not create a significant tsunami.
The Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands is a highly respect University and Technical Research Institute.
Their evidence leads one to compare the BBC Horizon program and the so called research by Ward/Day/McGuire with a Monty Python sketch. The only way La Palma is going to fall into the ocean is if the gigantic Monty Python cartoon foot kicks it there!
|LIE: The Horizon report suggests that evidence was gathered from the water galleries (tunnels) on La Palma.
|ALL the La Palma galleries are in the Caldera de Taburiente in the North of the island. The Caldera has a completely different structure and cannot provide valid supporting evidence.
|MISREPRESENTATION: The Horizon report shows 4 huge vertical walls of rock within the Cumbre Vieja.
|One of the graphics clearly shows 4 vertical columns of rock which, it is claimed, would trap water and create the explosion needed to trigger a landslide. The walls of rock appear to be about half a kilometer wide, at least 4 km deep and according to their own theory would need to be solid, continuous, 25km long and run parallel for all of that 25km.
Curiously, none of these huge walls of rock were encountered by the construction workers who built the 2 road tunnels which have been drilled through the Cumbre Vieja.
Curiously, none of the 4 walls of rock actually come to the surface ANYWHERE, not even where the island plunges down into the sea.
Curiously, the authors own scientific report over the west side of the island categorically states that nothing is known about the structure under the Cumbre Vieja and suggests that someone investigates it. Yet they expect us to believe their speculation that these huge columns exist.
Conclusion ? The 4 vertical walls of rock are a fabrication and only exist in the Horizon program.
|THEY SAY: La Palma will drop as one massive block into the ocean.
|All the measurements used to define the size of the possible block that might fall into the sea have been grossly exaggerated.
The length, width, depth and speed are all fictional.
The physical evidence for the length of the block is 4km, yet in the model they used 15 to 25 km.
The depth is suggested as 2 to 3km below the surface. The report itself states that there is no evidence for any form of deep fracture. The figure used is fictitious and was obviously chosen because without a large figure the whole La Palma Tsunami theory is exposed as a fake.
Width is given as 15 to 20 km. Again there is no hard evidence to support this fiction.
The speed of the collapse used in the model is not possible under normal circumstances. An unusual form of natural lubrication would be needed to achieve the speeds used in the model. This natural lubrication is NOT present under La Palma. An immense force would be needed to trigger the movement of the so-called block and these explosive pressures could not be produced on La Palma.
|THEY CALCULATED: Their computer model says there would be a ‘disaster-movie-size wave’.
|The method of calculation used in the mathematical model is the wrong one. It is only valid for long under sea earthquakes. It is incorrect and misleading to claim that it can be applied to landslides.
Using the correct calculations there wouldn’t have been a scare story.
|THEY SAY: La Palma has undergone a previous single total flank collapse.
|There are piles of debris off the coast of La Palma but there is no evidence that this was caused by a single event. There IS evidence that the debris is the result of a series of small landslides.
Ward/Day/McGuire present this lie as a fact but produce NO evidence to support their falsification, which is simply because there is no evidence.
|FACT: The ‘Natural Hazard’ industry is a multimillion pound (euro/dollar) business.
|Educational and Research institutes, Insurance companies and Hazard warning equipment manufacturers have a large commercial interest in promoting a high level of interest (and investment) in hazard monitoring programs.
Promoting scare stories is one method of obtaining funding.
|FACT: The research and TV program were funded by Insurance companies.
|The ‘research organisation’ which provided the information for the BBC Horizon program is largely funded by their parent organisation.
Their parent organisation is an Insurance Company. Insurance sells better when their potential clients get scared.
Previous versions of the research organisations website showed logos and references to the insurance companies who finance the hazard research. These references are no longer shown on the website.
|FACT: The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but very few facts.
|The Horizon program uses wonderful graphics but proves nothing. The program is full of misleading suggestions and unrelated facts. For example the 4 huge vertical solid walls of rock shown in one diagram do not exist. Nothing even remotely like these walls exists. This is not a diagrammatic representation of the facts. It is pure fiction without which the hazard industry scare story would not exist.
The BBC Horizon program is NOT A SCIENTIFIC program. It belongs on the science fantasy shelf along with Star Wars, Jurassic Park and Godzilla.
|QUESTION: Why was the film made when the scientific community knew that it was based on lies and speculation?.
|Perhaps the quest for personal fame and fortune played a role?
McGuire’s books seem to be selling quite well. They include ‘A Guide to the End of the World : Everything You Never Wanted to Know’, ‘A Guide to the End of the World’ and ‘Surviving Armageddon: Solutions for a Threatened Planet’. These are not serious scientific works, they are science fantasy.
A further apocalyptic report has been published in the The Halifax Travel Insurance Holiday 2003 report, yet another insurance industry financed ploy to promote insurance products.
Maybe, as stated on the publishers description of the Apocalypse book it was ‘designed to encourage the scientific study of geo-hazard prediction and management’. Is it a coincidence that McGuire and his company make their money from geo-hazard prediction and management? No, the conclusion must be that they used the BBC Horizon program as an enormous advertisement for their own commercial products. This not permitted under the statutes of the BBC.
Day runs tsunami workshops for the insurance industry, for example Tsunamis: past events and future risk, A Workshop for the Under 35s Reinsurance Group, organised by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, UCL.
McGuire even runs a ‘UCL Certificate Course: Natural Hazards for Insurers’.
|QUESTION: Did the Hazard Industry pay the BBC to show this blatant advertisement?.
|Ward/Day/McGuire work for the Benfield Hazard Research Centre. To quote their wesbite … ‘BHRC is sponsored by Benfield, the world’s leading independent reinsurance intermediary and risk advisory business.’.
The Horizon program was effectively a 30 minute advertisement for the Hazard Industry.
Who paid for it?
Was it paid for out of BBC funds which come directly from the British Taxpayer?
Did the BBC receive money to broadcast this 30 minute advert despite protests from the scientific community about its validity?
|SUSPICIOUS: TVE proudly presents and new program by ‘DISASTERMAN, Bill McGuire’.
|‘TVE makes disaster films for Channel 5 and Sky News’ ‘So watch this week and be afraid – very afraid’.
Those are their words not mine. The science fantasy production line continues. Maybe they will be remaking Godzilla next (because it really could happen guys!)
|FACT: The Horizon program has created millions of victims.
|The Horizon program scared millions of people on the east coast of the USA. We have had many emails from people on the American east coast who could not sleep and were considering tearing up their roots and moving to higher ground. Questions were asked in the British parliament, and taxpayers money was wasted in countering the irresponsible Hazard Industry propaganda. Tourists cancelled holidays to La Palma, some foreigners sold their (second) homes on La Palma and left the island. JMC stopped direct charter flights form the UK, German airlines reduced their charter flights to La Palma by almost 50% and a flights from Switzerland stopped completely.
Perhaps a claim for damages would be appropriate.
|BAD TASTE: 220,000+ dead: and the Hazard industries fund-raising is working overtime (January 2005)
|It would seem that the Asian Tsunami and the loss of over 220,000 lives and displacement of 3 million people is seen as a ‘business opportunity’ by the hazard industry. They are giving interviews and making media presentations to force governments into investing in their hazard research.
They could say no, but they don’t.
They keep repeating their unsubstantiated La Palma Tsunami horror-stories despite the deaths. It is in sickeningly bad taste.
|How the story started
|1. Scientific research was published about a possible fault line on La Palma and the possibility of a landslide being caused by future volcanic activity.
2. Theoretical projections were made as to the circumstances under which the fault could cause a major landslide.
3. A computer model was made which showed that under specific circumstances a landslide could cause a tsunami which might reach the Atlantic Coast of the USA, the Caribbean, the northern and western coasts of the South American continent, West Africa and the Western coasts of Europe.
4. A television program was made based on speculations and a very large helping of dramatic effects.
5. The general public believed it. The media keeps repeating the speculation as if it is fact.
6. Other well respected scientists have destroyed the La Palma Tsunami theory by using factual evidence. The media has FAILED to present this contra-expertise.
|So what’s the problem?
|The problem is that the world is even today being given the impression that:
1. La Palma will slide into the ocean.
2. A La Palma landslide would cause a large Tsunami.
3. The damage caused by a La Palma Tsunami would be on the scale of the 26 December 2004 Tsunami.
4. People should buy insurance against Tsunami flood damage.
5. People should not visit La Palma or the Canary Islands.
|What are the effects?
|1. People are being misled into believing the scaremongering media stories about a potential Tsunami disaster.
2. The La Palma and Canary Island tourist industry is being damaged by the incorrect information being distributed about a potentially disastrous Tsunami.
La Palma is innocent but suffering as a result of deliberately misleading information.
JMC and Thompson ceased their flights to La Palma from 2004 to 2007. Direct flights from Switzerland stopped. Flights from Germany have been substantially reduced.
|The original arguments:
|The proposed theory is basically that if volcanic activity1 occurs on a large enough scale water trapped2 in the volcanic rocks will be super-heated under pressure3 and will suddenly explode4 with such force that a huge chunk5 of La Palma will suddenly and very very rapidly6 drop into the sea and cause a Mega-Tsunami7 that would grow in size and cause damage8 when it reaches Florida.
All 8 numbered points are disputed or denied by well-respected experts. See further details
|The TV and media exaggerations:
|The media has taken this theory and given it the Spielberg treatment. They have implied that the La Palma volcano will explode like Krakatoa or Mount St.Helens. It won’t. They have made the wave into a monster wave of 8 to 100 meters high which will crash into Florida and cause massive damage to property and huge loss of life. It won’t.
|The counter arguments:
|The basic research which was done is correct. That is not in dispute. There is a fault, some movement has been detected and there is a volcano which will probably erupt again.
1. The existing fault is only 4km long, but it was extrapolated to 25km for the computer model. Worse still, the position of the fault line was ignored for the model and a fictitious line on the other side of the mountain ridge was used instead, 2 to 3km further away!.
2. The rock on La Palma is a mixture of very porous lava and well faulted and open basaltic layers which will not permit a build up of (steam) pressure.
3. There is an old deep-seated volcanic core between part of the fictitious fault and the sea. This will block the proposed landslide along part of its length.
4. The base of the proposed structure which is supposed to slide is placed at 2km under the surface … there is no evidence to support this. There is evidence to indicate that previous landslides have been superficial and not deep-seated.
5. There is strong evidence from reliable expert sources that any landslide will not occur in one massive collapse.
6. There is no evidence to support the theory that any catastrophic landslide would attain the extremely high speeds needed to crate a Tsunami.
7. The computer model was based on algorithms used for under sea linear earthquakes. This algorithm is not relevant to the La Palma situation because a La Palma landslide would cause a ‘single point event’ which would disperse quickly.
8. There is strong evidence to suggest that previous landslide generated Tsunami were very short lived and dissipate within a few hundred kilometres. Some were not even noticed at a distance to 25km.
|Why La Palma?:
|This is a question which has been asked on La Palma and there is great suspicion about the logic behind the choice because ….
1. There have been more landslides on other Canary Islands, e.g. Tenerife (5) and El Hierro (4) so why chose La Palma (only 2).
2. There is more visible volcanic activity on Lanzarote …. so why chose La Palma.
3. The largest pre-historic landslide remnants are on the neighbouring island of El Hierro, that’s why it is crescent-moon-shaped … so once again why chose La Palma.The scientific reasons for choosing La Palma seem doubtful. Presumably there were other non-scientific motivations.
The obvious one is that La Palma is a beautiful island unspoilt by commercial tourism, dotted with traditional and modern holiday cottages and ideal for walking holidays and getting away from it all. It is a really wonderfully warm and friendly place to do research, but that’s probably not the reason.
It would seem likely that the answer lies not in the source of the suggested tsunami but with the location of the potential damage. The suggested La Palma landslide is the only one that would possibly cause damage in the USA. So why would that be a significant factor. Maybe the fact that the research was funded by a American Hazard Insurance Company is relevant?
|Endorsement by the scientific community:
In fact many reliable researchers and geological and volcano experts have labelled the suggestions as ridiculous and the conclusions as work of fantasy with no basis in fact.
The leading Spanish and Canary island vulcanologist was furious when the fantasy film was announced and shown. All serious scientific work is ALWAYS published in scientific journals to enable other researchers to provide supporting or contrary evidence, to enable discussion and quality control on the work done and conclusions drawn and to provide a balanced and factually correct report to the general public. This procedure was NOT followed in the case of the Mega-Tsunami. The basis of the wild theory is NOT substantiated in fact and has been completely destroyed by contrary evidence.
Not only has the scientific community NOT ENDORSED this theory, but the scientific community was DELIBERATELY kept in the dark until after the documentary was shown.
|1. A catastrophic volcanic eruption on La Palma is not possible.
2. A landslide is possible but not on the scale suggested and is improbable in the next 10,000 years.
3. The computer model is NOT technically correct for short period tsunamis such as proposed to be generated by La Palma, the parameters used are wildly exaggerated and the algorithm is not applicable to this sort of event.
4. If the landslide happens it is unlikely to cause more than a big splash which will not be noticeable further than 100 km from the coast of La Palma.
5. La Palma is the victim of a commercially motivated scaremongering publicity stunt.
|Comparison with the 26 December 2004 Tsunami:
|The 2 events are not comparable.
Even if a La Palma Tsunami should occur it be insignificant compared to the 26 December 2004 Tsunami.
The earthquake which caused the 26 December 2004 Tsunami displaced water over a length of 1000km and probably 10 meters high and more than 20m wide (based in guestimates on 28 December 2004).
Even the most exaggerated worst case La Palma scenario uses a total length of 25km.
|Exploding the media myths:
|1. La Palma will NOT explode like Krakatoa or Mount St.Helens.
Why not? Because it is the wrong sort of magma and the wrong sort of geomorphic structure.2. The tidal wave will not be over 20 metres tall when it reaches Florida.
Why not? Because a landslide on La Palma would be a ‘single point event’ like dropping a pebble in a pool. The ripples from the pool spread out and diminish very rapidly in height and strength. In the most extreme situation a La Palma landslide would probably not be noticeably more than 100km away.3. The 26 December 2004 event could NOT happen on La Palma.
Why not? The 26 December 2004 event occurred on about a 1000km stretch of the junction between 2 tectonic plates. La Palma is not at the edge of a tectonic plate, never has been and never will be.
4. The landslide could not be triggered by terrorists. (Yes it has been suggested.)
Why not? Drilling holes deep enough to bury explosives or a nuclear bomb would be noticed by the local people. La Palma is a civilised island with a population of about 90,000 people and thriving economy. Planning permission would be needed to start drilling and illegal drilling would not get a chance to begin.
5. Pre-emptive strikes by the US Military would not solve the problem.(This has also been suggested.)
Why not? The forces needed to trigger even a small landslide on La Palma would be far greater than are available. The level of destruction would not be acceptable to the inhabitants or their government (Spain) or the EU. The fall-out of a nuclear strike would be far more destructive than any supposed Tsunami.
6. There have not been 14 mega-tsunamis started in the Canary Islands (This too has been endlessly repeated.)
Why not? There are 14 piles of rubble in the sea around the Canary Islands, there is NO evidence to suggest that 13 of them even caused a splash. The El Hierro collapse may have caused a splash but that was so many thousands of years ago that there is no conclusive evidence. Evidence pointed to by the authors is strongly disputed.
|Reactions from the scientific community:
|The La Palma Tsunami theory was launched in the media without consultation with leading scientists in this field.
The media have been happy to repeat the scaremongering without checking the facts.
The scientific community does not take the Horizon program seriously because they consider it to be largely a work of fiction.
Leading scientists disagree with the conclusions drawn from the original geological and scientific research. Many of the assumptions made by the program have been disproved by other research.
|Supporting evidence 0 : Contrary evidence 7 and growing
|The ‘evidence’ for the Tsunami mega-hype was produced by 2 commercial organisations working together. So far there has been NO independent evidence to support this hypothesis. NO scientists have jumped to support this theory, not a single one.
NO vulcanologists have agreed.
NO geologists have agreed.
NO hydrogeologists have agreed.
NO tsunami experts have agreed.
NO wave experts have agreed
In fact distinguished scientists have shot holes in all parts of the theory.
There is much scientific evidence which contradicts the conclusions drawn.
Lack of supporting evidence any one of these fields would invalidate the whole mega-tsunami hype.
Lack of supporting evidence on ALL counts can only point to misuse of science and the media for commercial purposes.
|Southampton Oceanography Centre
|Researchers at the Southampton Oceanography Centre who have been performing research into the debris surrounding the Canary Islands have found that the landslides on the Canary islands and specifically La Palma have been caused ‘bit by bit’ and not in one huge catastrophic disaster.
|The TU Delft has modelled the island of La Palma and attempted to simulate a landslide large enough to cause a significant Tsunami. They could not do so with realistic or even exaggerated data. Only by using extreme and totally unrealistic values could they get an form of landslide and even then any wave reaching America would be about 15cm high, or perhaps 1 meter. They have modelled and disproved all the key points in the Ward/Day results.
Source: TU Delft
|The Tsunami Society
|The Tsunami Society, a group of leading Tsunami scientists, have published a special news bulletin to counteract the incorrect and misleading information being published by, among others, the Horizon program.
Source: Tsunami Society
|Challenger Division of the UK’s SOC.
|Challenger Division scientists Russell Wynn and Doug Masson have researched the under sea deposit and conclude ‘The results, based upon landslides that occurred about 15,000 and 180,000 years ago, indicate that these events may actually fail in multiple stages. Each stage of failure probably produced a small tidal wave that may have affected the local area, but there is certainly no evidence that these failures would have generated a giant mega-tsunami that would have affected areas far from the source. ‘
Source: SOC, Canary slides
|Charles L. Mader, Mader Consulting Co., Honolulu, Hawaii USA
|Charles L. Mader, a leading Tsunami expert has published a paper in the “Science of Tsunami Hazards Volume 19, pages 150-170 (2001)” called “Modelling the La Palma Landslide Tsunami” in which he shoots holes in the mathematical model used as a basis for the Horizon program. His conclusion is that even using the greatly exaggerated size of the block any wave reaching the US would be less than 1 meter high and would form no significant danger.
Read the abstract here: Abstract
See also his new book “Numerical Modelling of Water Waves – Second Edition” (includes CD-ROM) CRC Press (www.mccohi.com)
|George Pararas-Carayannis. Paper published in Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol 20, No.5, pages 251-277, 2002
|Dr. Pararas-Carayannis destroys the La Palma Tsunami theory with well researched and presented scientific data. Almost every aspect of the Horizon program is proved to be false.
Abstract: “Massive flank failures of island stratovolcanoes are extremely rare phenomena and none have occurred within recorded history. Recent numerical modelling studies, forecasting mega tsunami generation from postulated, massive slope failures of Cumbre Vieja in La Palma, Canary Islands, and Kilauea, in Hawaii, have been based on incorrect assumptions of volcanic island slope instability, source dimensions, speed of failure and tsunami coupling mechanisms. Incorrect input parameters and treatment of wave energy propagation and dispersion, have led to overestimates of tsunami far field effects. Inappropriate media attention and publicity to such probabilistic results have created unnecessary anxiety that mega tsunamis may be imminent and may devastate densely populated coastlines at locations distant from the source – in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
The present study examines the assumptions and input parameters used by probabilistic numerical models and evaluates the threat of mega tsunami generation from flank failures of island stratovolcanoes. Based on geologic evidence and historic events, it concludes that massive flank collapses of Cumbre Vieja or Kilauea volcanoes are extremely unlikely to occur in the near geologic future. The flanks of these island stratovolcanoes will continue to slip aseismically, as in the past. Sudden slope failures can be expected to occur along faults paralleling rift zones, but these will occur in phases, over a period of time, and not necessarily as single, sudden, large-scale, massive collapses. Most of the failures will occur in the upper flanks of the volcanoes, above and below sea level, rather than at the basal decollement region on the ocean floor. The sudden flank failures of the volcanoes of Mauna Loa and Kilauea in 1868 and 1975 and the resulting earthquakes generated only destructive local tsunamis with insignificant far field effects. Caldera collapses and large slope failures associated with volcanic explosions of Krakatau in 1883 and of Santorin in 1490 B.C., generated catastrophic local tsunamis, but no waves of significance at distant locations. Mega tsunami generation, even from the larger slope failures of island stratovolcanoes, is extremely unlikely to occur. Greater source dimensions and longer wave periods are required to generate tsunamis that can have significant, far field effects. The threat of mega tsunami generation from massive flank failures of island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated.”
Read the abstract here: Paper
|El Pais, quoting a leading Spanish scientist
|“It is hypothetical and moreover improbable, and the model would not have passed the stage of an elegant theoretical exercise if the authors had not spent a week publicly airing it before publishing it (tomorrow) in a specialised journal. Why so much interest in publicising it? The explanation perhaps lies in the fact that the research centre is funded by an insurance company, concerned with natural catastrophes.”
|Spanish vulcanologist Juan Carlos Carracedo
|The Spanish vulcanologist Juan Carlos Carracedo who was first to spot the instability caused by the 1947 cracking was horrified by the sensationalism of the British researchers, stating:
‘The error is modelling a phenomenon when there are no (sic) probabilities of it happening. It is as if one makes a model of what Madrid would look like after an atom bomb explosion. What interest does it have for the general population when the probability is not determined?
Adding ‘In La Palma, there is on-going earthquake monitoring and absolutely no seismic activity has been detected… And retorting the claim of geological proof of the Canaries collapsing in the past, he informs us that. ‘We are talking about a geological timescale, and the last time La Palma slipped was 560,000 years ago !
|Technical University Delft, Netherlands
|In September 2006 a team of research scientists at the highly regarded Dutch Technical University at Delft published the findings of their research into the La Palma Tsunami phenomenon.The report is devastatingly critical of all aspects of the BBC Horizon program and the scientific information that it was reportedly based upon.
|Download Dutch language pdf version of their report
|pdf report (448Kb)
|This article has just recently been brought to my attention and I am currently trying to obtain an English translation.The report states:
– ‘La Palma has a very stable construction.’
– ‘The island has an abundance of obstacles which would prevent any block from sliding quickly’
– ‘Any block would break into pieces’
– They modelled the island, but ‘whatever they tried they couldn’t generate a significant tsunami’
– they even modelled the island higher and steeper but still couldn’t get La Palma to slide into the sea.
– ‘the so-called steam-kettle effect was modelled, but simply blew some steam out through the top of the ridge but excerpted no lateral pressure. (Needed by Ward/Day/McGuire to kick-start the rock-slide)’
– ‘they calculated that the lateral pressure needed to move half of La Palma would be the equivalent of 600 million jet-fighter engines’
– ‘the island might possibly become unstable if the island grows taller, at the current rate that would take at least 10000 years’
– of the BBC Horizon programs claim that ‘a huge massive block of rock is just waiting to slide into the sea’ they accuse the researchers (Ward/Day/McGuire) of having ‘a complete lack of insight into ground mechanics’
– even under the most extreme circumstances they could only create a wave 15cm to 100cm tall at the coast of America
– the Delft researchers join the chorus of scientists who state that Ward/Day/McGuire used an incorrect algorithm to calculate the size of the tsunami.